Japan’s beloved powdered green tea, matcha, has reached a critical point of supply constraint in 2025. Once readily available both domestically and abroad, matcha—especially high-grade ceremonial varieties—now faces limited stock, surging prices, and extended delivery delays. This article explores the root causes of the shortage, its effects on producers and consumers, and the prospects for restoration of supply.

1. Dramatic Drop in Production Volumes

Recent official figures reveal substantial year-on-year declines in the two key tencha (the steamed leaf precursor to matcha) harvests in Kyoto Prefecture:

Such steep declines stem largely from extreme weather during key growing periods. Record-breaking heatwaves in summer 2024 damaged tea bushes across Uji and broader Kyoto, reducing leaf yields and hampering quality.

2. Climate Change and Unpredictable Weather

Japan’s tea-producing regions experienced an unprecedented series of climate events:

• Heat stress: Temperatures in the 2024 growing season were the highest on record, scorching foliage and interrupting chlorophyll development crucial for tencha’s vibrant color and umami.

• Erratic rainfall: Unseasonal downpours during spring bud development led to fungal disease risks and uneven leaf growth.

These shifting patterns make planning harvests and maintaining consistent output increasingly difficult for small, heritage tea farms.

3. Aging Farmers and Labor Shortages

Japanese agriculture faces a structural demographic challenge: the average age of tea farmers has climbed steadily as younger workers migrate to urban centers. The number of tea cultivators fell from over 54,000 in 2000 to just 20,000 by 2025 in some prefectures.

• Hand-picking constraints: Ceremonial tencha relies on meticulous hand-plucking by skilled labor, now in short supply.

• Mechanization limits: While machine harvesting scales volume, it cannot match the precision required for premium matcha grades.

Without new entrants into tea cultivation, fields lie fallow, and processing capacity remains constrained.

4. Soaring Global Demand and Social Media Influence

Matcha’s international popularity exploded over the past decade, driven by its perceived health benefits and vibrant hue showcased on social platforms:

• Export surges: Japan’s green tea exports (including matcha) rose 16% by volume and 25% by value in 2024, reaching ¥36.4 billion ($252 million).

• Purchase limits: Prominent tea houses such as Ippodo and Marukyu Koyamaen imposed caps on consumer orders to preserve stocks for long-standing clients.

• “MatchaTok” phenomenon: Viral videos on TikTok and Instagram featuring lattes, desserts, and skincare sparked unprecedented interest among millennials and Gen Z worldwide.

This demand surge has outpaced the modest incremental gains in cultivation area and production efficiency, placing further strain on limited supplies.

5. Price Increases and Market Responses

Tencha fetched record prices at Kyoto auctions in 2025, nearly 170% higher than the previous year (¥8,235 per kg vs. ¥4,862 per kg in 2016) as buyers competed for dwindling lots. Retail matcha prices doubled in some overseas markets, prompting distributors to ration shipments and prioritize premium grades.

6. Short-Term Mitigations and Long-Term Strategies

Producers and industry groups are adopting a range of measures to address the shortage:

• Government support: The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is increasing subsidies for farm rejuvenation and encouraging organic and sustainable practices.

• New plantings: Tea cooperatives are expanding cultivation into Kagoshima and Shizuoka, though new bushes require 3–5 years before yielding tencha suitable for matcha.

• Technology adoption: Research into improved shade-net materials, heat-tolerant cultivars, and refined milling techniques aims to boost yield and quality resilience.

• Tourism management: In Uji—the historic matcha capital—local authorities are balancing visitor experiences with protection of small farms, offering off-season tea-picking workshops and limiting bulk souvenir purchases.

7. Outlook for Matcha Supply

While the 2025 spring harvest has helped stabilize inventories temporarily, experts caution that matcha availability will remain tight through late 2025. Recovery to pre-shortage levels hinges on:

1. Climate consistency: Absence of further extreme weather events during critical bud and leaf growth phases.

2. Labor revitalization: Incentivizing younger workers to join tea farming through cooperative business models and agritourism opportunities.

3. Balanced demand growth: Educating consumers on grade distinctions and promoting powdered green teas that complement matcha in applications.

Manufacturers forecast gradual improvement by the 2026 harvest, but premium ceremonial matcha may remain a prized, limited offering for some time.

In this pivotal moment, the matcha community—farmers, distributors, and aficionados—faces both challenge and opportunity. By embracing sustainable farming, innovation, and mindful consumption, Japan’s matcha heritage can endure and flourish for generations to come.